Journal of Economics, Management and Trade

Monetary and Financial Inclusion in Fragile States: Do Credit Access and Mobile Money Reduce Conflict Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Fragile states in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to face recurrent conflict associated with economic marginalisation, weak institutions, poverty, and restricted access to finance. This study examined whether credit access and mobile money are associated with conflict risk in ten fragile Sub-Saharan African countries—South Sudan, Somalia, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mozambique—between 2010 and 2024. A random-effects panel regression model was estimated using data from the World Development Indicators, Global Findex, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. Credit access was negatively and significantly associated with conflict risk (β = −0.153, p < .001), while institutional quality also had a negative association at the 5% threshold (β = −0.894, p = .050). By contrast, mobile money penetration (β = 7.593, p < .001) and the overall financial inclusion measure (β = 0.061, p = .002) were positively associated with conflict risk. Poverty showed an unexpected negative association (β = −0.446, p < .001), whereas youth unemployment was not statistically significant (β = −0.142, p = .247). These results should be interpreted as associations rather than causal effects. They indicate that the stabilising potential of financial inclusion depends on institutional capacity, effective regulation, and the productive use of finance. Policies should expand affordable formal credit while strengthening digital-finance oversight, consumer protection, and governance in fragile Sub-Saharan African states.

India's Trade and Investment Landscape: Insights into the Export–Energy–Exchange Rate Nexus

Ajay Yadav, Sushant Yadav, Raushan Kumar, Chirag Dhankhar — Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Background: India’s merchandise exports are influenced by interrelated trade, investment, production, energy and exchange-rate conditions.

Aim: The study examines the short-run and long-run determinants of India's merchandise exports, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment, industrial production, merchandise and energy (oil) imports, and the real effective exchange rate.

Research Gap: Prior studies examine India's export determinants largely in isolation and rarely combine foreign investment, industrial production, merchandise and energy imports, and the exchange rate within a single ARDL-ECM framework that also accounts for the COVID-19 structural break; this study addresses that gap.

Study Design: Quantitative, time-series econometric study.

Place and Duration of Study: Sample: India. Quarterly data from 2000-01 to 2023-24 were obtained from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), and the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).

Methodology: The study uses secondary data for the period 2000-01 to 2023-24 and employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to estimate short-run and long-run relationships between merchandise exports and their determinants (BSE market capitalisation, CPI, FDI, IIP, merchandise imports, oil imports, REER, R&D, and a COVID-19 dummy). The error correction model (ECM) was further used to measure the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium, and Granger causality analysis was applied to evaluate the direction of causal relationships among these variables.

Results: The results show that foreign direct investment, industrial production, merchandise imports, oil imports, and the exchange rate significantly influence merchandise exports in both the short run and the long run, while BSE market capitalisation, CPI, R&D, and the COVID-19 dummy are not statistically significant. The error correction term confirms that short-run deviations adjust back towards long-run equilibrium. Granger causality results indicate a predominantly unidirectional relationship between the macroeconomic variables and merchandise exports.

Conclusion: The findings indicate that trade- and investment-related factors - particularly FDI, industrial production, imports, and exchange-rate competitiveness - have significant implications for India's export performance. Policymakers should prioritise measures that strengthen industrial output, sustain FDI inflows, and maintain exchange-rate competitiveness to support merchandise export growth.

Farm Capital Formation and Productivity Differentials among Small and Marginal Coconut Cultivators in Salem District, Tamil Nadu, India

G. Parthasarathi, G. Sakthivel — Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Coconut cultivation in Salem District has undergone a transition from a household plantation activity to a farm enterprise with a capital structure. Small and marginal farmers continue to cultivate the crop amid ever-increasing irrigation charges, labour shortages, high input requirements, volatile markets, and declining tree vigour. The study proposes an empirical model to examine productivity contrasts between small and marginal coconut farmers through the lens of farm capital formation. A primary survey of 384 farm households was conducted using a multistage sampling design in the coconut-growing blocks of Salem District. The Farm Capital Formation Index was computed as a composite measure comprising irrigation assets, plant protection expenditure, post-harvest assets, soil fertility investment, mechanisation, and replanting expenditure. Productivity was measured in terms of annual nuts per acre and net return per acre. The analytical approach involved robust regression with HC3 standard errors, quantile regression, Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, propensity score matching, and Garrett ranking. The empirical results revealed a stronger relationship between productivity and capital formation than between productivity and land size alone. Irrigation assets, replanting expenditure, credit adequacy, and market-linked investment contributed substantially to the productivity gap between small and marginal cultivators, of which 67.02 per cent was explained by observed factors. The quantile estimates indicated that capital formation had a greater effect on productivity among higher-performing cultivators, as assets were used more effectively when irrigation practices, tree management, and market timing improved. These findings support credit-linked irrigation investment, rejuvenation assistance, and farm-level productive asset formation in coconut-based livelihoods.

Determinants of the Capital Structure of Non-financial Firms Moderated by Financial Market Development

Peni Rahmadani, Farah Margaretha, Susy Muchtar — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Objective: Previous studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the determinants of capital structure, with limited evidence on the moderating role of financial market development in emerging markets. Therefore, this study aims to examine the effects of goodwill assets, digital transformation, corporate social responsibility (CSR), liquidity, and managerial ownership on the capital structure of non-financial companies in Indonesia, with financial market development as a moderating variable.

Research Design: This study adopts a quantitative research design using a panel data regression analysis approach.

Research Setting and Period: This study uses secondary data from non-financial companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2020–2024.

Methodology: The sampling technique used was purposive sampling, resulting in a sample of 86 non-financial companies with a total of 430 company-year observations. Based on the results of the model selection test, the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) was identified as the best-fitting model. The independent variables in this study are goodwill, digital transformation, corporate social responsibility (CSR), liquidity, and managerial ownership. Capital structure serves as the dependent variable. The moderating variable is financial market development.

Results: The findings indicate that corporate social responsibility and managerial ownership have a significant negative effect on capital structure, whilst digital transformation and goodwill assets do not have a significant effect on capital structure. Meanwhile, financial market development was found to moderate the effects of goodwill assets, digital transformation, and liquidity on capital structure. Financial market development does not moderate the effects of corporate social responsibility and managerial ownership on capital structure.

Conclusion: This study concludes that corporate social responsibility, liquidity, and managerial ownership are factors that influence a company’s capital structure, whilst digital transformation and goodwill do not have a direct impact. Furthermore, financial market development moderates the effects of goodwill, digital transformation, and liquidity on capital structure but does not moderate the effects of corporate social responsibility and managerial ownership. These findings indicate that financial market conditions are an important factor in determining the extent to which firm characteristics influence capital structure decisions. This study contributes to the capital structure literature by providing new empirical evidence on the moderating role of financial market development in Indonesian non-financial companies.

Growth and Structure of Public Expenditure in Tamil Nadu, India

M. Tamizharasan, M. Bhaskara Rao, S. Pushparaj — Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Government expenditure is an important fiscal policy instrument for supporting production, income generation, and economic development. This study examines the growth, composition, and relationship of public expenditure with Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) in Tamil Nadu from 1990–91 to 2020–21. Public expenditure is analysed through total expenditure, development expenditure, non-development expenditure, and grants-in-aid. Annual growth rates, percentage distributions, compound growth rates, and a log-linear regression model are used to assess expenditure patterns and estimate the elasticity of NSDP with respect to public expenditure. The results show that total public expenditure increased throughout the study period, although its annual and compound growth rates fluctuated across expenditure categories and decades. Development expenditure generally accounted for a larger share of total expenditure than non-development expenditure, with social and economic services forming its principal components. Public expenditure as a percentage of NSDP reached its highest level in 1991–92 and remained at approximately 14–15 per cent in recent years. The estimated elasticity of NSDP with respect to public expenditure was positive in all three sub-periods but declined from 1.194 to 0.819 and then to 0.523. These findings indicate that public expenditure remained positively associated with economic activity, while the relative strength of this association diminished over time. The study highlights the continuing importance of balanced and efficiently managed development expenditure in Tamil Nadu.

Drivers of Deprivation: Analysing Multidimensional Poverty in India

Bhabani Mishra, Mousam Kumar Pradhan — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Poverty extends beyond income deprivation and encompasses shortfalls in health, education, and living standards. This study examines the principal socio-economic determinants of multidimensional poverty across Indian states and assesses changes between the 2015–16 and 2019–21 rounds of the National Family Health Survey. The Multidimensional Poverty Index is treated as the dependent variable, while selected indicators of economic conditions, demographics, health, labour-market participation, school dropout, higher-education enrolment, and food production are used as explanatory variables. Given the short panel structure, pooled ordinary least squares with clustered standard errors is estimated as the baseline specification, alongside fixed-effects and random-effects models for robustness. The results indicate that higher per capita income, greater food production, longer life expectancy, and higher gross enrolment are associated with lower multidimensional poverty. Population growth and infant mortality show positive associations with the poverty index, while the estimated relationships for unemployment, labour-force participation, and secondary school dropout are comparatively weak. The Hausman test supports the random-effects specification. Overall, the findings suggest that multidimensional poverty across Indian states is associated with interconnected economic, agricultural, health, educational, and demographic conditions. The study therefore emphasises the relevance of coordinated policy measures that strengthen inclusive income growth, food security, healthcare, nutrition, and educational participation while addressing demographic pressures.

A Mixed-methods Analysis on the Role of Promotional Marketing Strategies on Community-Based Health Insurance Uptake at Kitojo Integrated Development Action

Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Purpose: This study examined associations between promotional marketing strategies and a composite measure of perceived community-based health insurance (CBHI) uptake and service experience at Kitojo Integrated Development Action in western Uganda.

Methods: A cross-sectional mixed-methods design was used. A total of 224 completed questionnaires were analysed, and 10 interviews contributed qualitative contextual evidence. Quantitative data were summarised descriptively and examined using separate bivariate linear regression models. Interview material was transcribed and analysed using content analysis, with integration achieved through comparison of quantitative patterns and qualitative accounts.

Results: Advertising (R = .893, R² = .797, p < .001), personal selling (R = .919, R² = .845, p < .001), and public relations (R = .887, R² = .787, p < .001) each showed strong bivariate associations with the composite outcome score. Interview accounts described radio programmes, printed materials, direct engagement by staff and group leaders, feedback mechanisms, and community outreach as the principal communication practices.

Conclusion: Favourable assessments of promotional communication were strongly associated with favourable assessments of CBHI use and service experience. The findings are context-specific and do not establish that promotion caused enrolment or renewal. Communication strategies should therefore be combined with improvements in affordability, trust, benefit design, service quality, accessibility, and scheme governance.