Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets of Pakistan: Looking for a Preferable Trading Avenue

Main Article Content

Fakiha Tariq
Tayyaba Rafique
Tehseen Nawaz

Abstract

The primary objective of this study is to find out the impact of oil price on futures and spot markets of agricultural products in Pakistan. Secondly, the study compares the research findings to suggest less oil price sensitive market for trading agricultural products in Pakistan. Futures (1 and 2 months futures) and spot prices of rice and sugar are taken as proxies for prices of agricultural products representing respective markets. Oil price sensitivity analysis is conducted via Vector Error Correction model. Further, Granger Causality approach is used for the causality analysis. Futures (1 and 2 months futures) and spot prices of rice and sugar are taken as proxies for prices of agricultural products representing derivatives and spot markets respectively. Time series data constituting 7 variables of 60 observations is analyzed from October 2012 to October 2017. The results are then subject to comparison and discussed.

Keywords:
Agricultural futures, futures market, vector error correction model, granger causality, rice futures, Pakistan mercantile exchange.

Article Details

How to Cite
Tariq, F., Rafique, T., & Nawaz, T. (2020). Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets of Pakistan: Looking for a Preferable Trading Avenue. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 26(6), 19-26. https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2020/v26i630262
Section
Original Research Article

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