Nigeria Rice Output Forecast: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Approach

Main Article Content

H. S. Umar
A. A. Girei
O. A. Aliyu

Abstract

Nigeria has implemented various policies and programs aimed at ensuring self-sufficiency in rice production since 1970. The trade policy instruments employed included tariffs, quotas, subsidies,  import restrictions and outright ban on rice import at various times. All these policies failed to bridge ever increasing demand-supply deficit in rice production. However, there is considerable potential for expansion of rice production in the five rice-growing ecosystems in Nigeria in order to attain self-sufficiency. The current government has again placed a total ban on the importation of rice with the target of attaining self- sufficiency in rice production by 2020. Given the current production level, this study intended to forecast the rice output from 2018 to 2025 so as to ascertain the likelihood of attaining the self-sufficiency level within the target period, and also to describe trends in rice output from 1980-2016. The study was based on annual time series data collected on national rice output from 1980 to 2016. Descriptive statistics and ARIMA (111) model were used to analyze data collected. Results shows that on the average, national rice output maintain a steady increase of 69% per decade from 1980 to 2016, with the peak of 93% increase recorded within the years 2000- 2009. Given the current production environment, the national paddy-rice output was projected to reach 7.4 million tonnes (equivalent of 4.9 million tonnes of milled-rice) by the year 2020. This is short of 6 million tonnes of milled-rice target. However, the projected result also show that self-sufficiency level of 6 million tonnes of milled rice (about 10 million tonnes of paddy-rice) could only be attainable by the year 2025. It is recommended that until 2025 when the country was projected to attain self-sufficiency in rice production, effort should be geared towards bridging demand –supply gap by ensuring strict quota policy of rice import. This would eliminate price increase associated with disequilibrium in demand –supply of rice commodity in the market.

Keywords:
National rice output, forecast, ARIMA

Article Details

How to Cite
Umar, H. S., Girei, A. A., & Aliyu, O. A. (2019). Nigeria Rice Output Forecast: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Approach. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 23(5), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.9734/jemt/2019/v23i530145
Section
Original Research Article

References

Olowa OW, Olowa O. Food Demand Forecast for Nigeria (2016 – 2028). Science Agricultural Journal. 2016;15(1): 240–343.

Wudil AH, Katanga YN, Nasiru A. Econometric analysis of the effect of rice production and importation on domestic consumption in Nigeria (1999-2013). Journal of Direct Research, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa. 2015;3(12):217-222.

Onu DO, Obike KC, Ebe FE, Okpara BO. Empirical assessment of the trend in rice production and imports in Nigeria (1980-2013). International Journal of Agricultural Science and Soil Science. 2015;5(6):150-158.

Oyinbo O, Damisa MA, Rekwot GZ. Growth, trend of rice demand and supply in Nigeria: An investment alternative for yourth and womens empowerment. Russian Journal of Agriculture and Socio-Economic Sciences. 2015;4(16):31–34.

Ashiru MA, Iye GA, Olaoluwa K. Impact of rice production on Nigeria’s economy. Journal of Scientific Agriculture. 2018;2(901):71–75.

Cadoni P, Angelucci F. Analysis of incentives and dis-incentives for rice in Nigeria. Technical Notes Series, Monitoring African Food and Agricultural Policies, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy. 2013;1–42.

Ogunsimi LO, Ajayi A, Amire CM, Williams S. Sustainability of agricultural transformation agenda: The place of rice farmers in Ogun State, Nigeria. Research on Humanities & Social Sciences. 2013;3(13):66–78.

Food and Agricultural Organization. World Trade Report.
(Accessed on 19th January 2018)
Available:http://www.faostat.org

United States Department for Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA FAS). Database of production, supply and distribution; 2018.
(Accessed on 20th January 2018)
Available:http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline

Food and Agricultural Organization. World Trade Report.
(Accessed on 19th January 2017)
Available:http://www.faostat.org

Tijani AA. Analysis of the technical efficiency of rice farms in Ijesha Land of Osun State, Nigeria. Ife Journal of Agriculture. 2006;45(2).

United States Department for Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA FAS). Database of production, supply and distribution; 2016.
(Accessed on 20th January 2016)
Available:http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline

Gujarati DN, Porter CD. Basic Econometrics (5th Edition). McGraw-Hill, New; 2009.

Gujarati DN, Porter CD. Basic Econometrics (4th Edition). McGraw-Hill, New; 2003.