Export Performance of Uttar Pradesh among Major Indian States: Growth, Share and Instability
Shalini Yadav *
Department of Economics MBP Govt PG College Lucknow, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Sunil Kumar Niranjan
Department of Economics MBP Govt PG College Lucknow, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India.
Arpita Soni
Department of Economics MBP Govt PG College Lucknow, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Background: Uttar Pradesh is among India's largest merchandise-exporting states, but evidence comparing its export growth and instability with those of other major exporting states remains limited.
Aims: To examine the merchandise export performance of Uttar Pradesh relative to India and the ten largest exporting states, focusing on growth, its share in India's exports, trend-adjusted export instability and the concentration of India's exports across states.
Study Design: A descriptive comparative study of official state-wise export values in US dollars.
Place and Duration of Study: Uttar Pradesh and the ten largest exporting Indian states, 2014-15 to 2023-24; 2024-25 is reported separately as a sensitivity year.
Methodology: Growth was measured using compound and semi-log rates. The study also measured the state's share in India's exports, trend-adjusted instability with the Cuddy-Della Valle index, and concentration across states with the Herfindahl-Hirschman index.
Results: Uttar Pradesh's exports grew by 4.4% a year compared with 3.9% for India, and its share rose from 4.5% to 4.7%. However, this advantage arose before 2019-20; from 2019-20 to 2023-24 India grew faster (8.7% a year against 4.9%). With 2014-15 as the starting year, its growth ranks sixth among the ten largest exporting states, and comparisons with closely ranked peers depend on the starting year. Its trend-adjusted instability index of 8.2% is below India's 11.4% and is the second lowest among the ten largest states. This ranking holds for deviations from a log-linear trend but not for the raw coefficient of variation. India's export concentration across states fell until 2020-21 and then rose alongside Gujarat's expansion.
Conclusion: Uttar Pradesh's exports grew steadily and with lower trend-adjusted instability than India's, but the state's place in India's export map barely changed. State data for 2024-25 appear to have been affected by a change in attribution and are reported separately as a sensitivity check. The findings are descriptive and do not identify causes.
Keywords: State exports, export growth, export instability, Cuddy-Della Valle index, regional concentration